Fatoumatta: The power dynamics between the godson, President Adama Barrow, and his estranged godfather, Ousainou Darboe, are viewed as reckless and potentially harmful, fostering divisive and toxic politics. If not handled with caution, the tension between them could escalate in the two years leading up to the presidential elections. Their current political ambitions demonstrate that, despite one’s desires, it is crucial not to appear desperate. Nevertheless, opposition to Barrow’s potential third term is mounting, with concerns over his intense desire to perpetuate his power indefinitely, mirroring his predecessors who overstayed their tenure. The impact of their actions over the past eight years has raised alarms about the potential further damage they could cause if more caution is not exercised before the 2026 presidential elections and beyond. The implications of their actions are significant, and it is time to consider the future of The Gambia. Warning signs suggest that the relationship between the godson and his estranged godfather is entering dangerous territory, and without careful navigation, both President Barrow and Ousainou Darboe risk severe consequences.
Fatoumatta: Our democracy seems robust, and our institutions are designed to check any potential abuses of power by politicians. I wish I could assert that our politicians are not as bigoted, sexist, impulsive, narcissistic, and unbalanced as they have appeared in their political rallies and on social media during election campaigns, and that their followers and supporters will not act as extremely as we have feared. After all, Gambia is a nation united by one people, one destiny. However, the reality is that none of this is certain, and my confidence is shaken. Over the past years, I have been concerned about our politics in ways I never was with any previous presidential contender, except for the despot Yahya Jammeh, who ran a campaign marked by authoritarian and demagogic rhetoric, exploiting prejudice and fear for personal gain. I am apprehensive about the health and safety of our democracy and for those in our society who are vulnerable and marginalized.
I am concerned about the rule of law. However, the solution to fear and dismay is not to retreat. Nor can it be just righteous anger. We must comprehend why many intellectuals, who are not prejudiced, remain silent in the face of the intellectual terrorism of the minority. We must muster the courage to confront what will likely be an onslaught on civil and political liberties, along with threats and bullying of dissenters. And we must never abandon our belief in our democracy and its fundamental principles. I hope my fears are unfounded, and I believe they could be, but I worry that the next two years might challenge our democracy in ways we haven’t experienced in the past eight years. We have to meet this challenge head-on
Gambians should dismiss the trivial notion that ” youth hustlers” are driving President Adama Barrow’s ascent to the statehouse in 2026 and beyond. President Barrow’s tenure is built upon an existing alliance between factions of the United Democratic Party militants, supporters of the Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC), a coalition of minor “taf yengal” political parties like NRP and Citizen Alliance, other transient “tangal cheeb” politicians, and the middle-class elites in Gambia and the diaspora. It is unrealistic to assume that Adama Barrow could secure the electorate’s votes if Ousainou Darboe and the UDP supporters oppose him. Especially if Adama Barrow is perceived as antagonizing the rural elites with his party, the NPP, and his coalition of political parties that directly confront the UDP militants. Consequently, Barrow has consistently targeted the UDP, often through political speeches and patronage, seemingly engaging in a veiled conflict with his political mentor, Vice President Ousainou Darboe, using his “unofficial” and sometimes ill-conceived political tactics.
Fatoumatta: To become President, having the State’s support rather than its opposition is crucial. It is rumored that President Adama Barrow and his political mentor, Ousainou Darboe, are amassing a “war chest.” There are also claims that President Barrow is intent on ensuring his estranged mentor’s political demise and the annihilation of the UDP in the upcoming presidential elections after his current term ends in 2026. Barrow and Darboe face the challenge that their “war chest” is subject to the republic’s jurisdiction, and without it, the State retains the exclusive right to tax collection. Historically, other determined and resourceful candidates with extensive support in Gambia have invested heavily in their presidential campaigns to no avail.
Adama Barrow is the sole candidate who has successfully shattered the State’s ‘ceiling’ due to the 2016 grand coalition that brought together the majority of the Gambian opposition and civil society activists, ending 22 years of entrenched dictatorship. Ousainou Darboe might have triumphed over Yahya Jammeh in earlier elections, but Jammeh leveraged State resources and implemented a ‘divide and rule strategy’ by financially influencing key Gambian figures, including certain politicians, religious groups, and civil society organizations. This strategy aimed to sow discord and enmity among adversaries, thereby diluting their collective power and resulting in fragmented presidential candidacies, which played to Yahya Jammeh’s advantage.
Adama Barrow is a candidate fixated solely on the 50+1 threshold, uniting different tribes to reach this goal. The 50+1 rule in Gambian politics requires a presidential candidate to obtain over 50% of the votes cast, plus one vote, to win the election. His presidential bid won’t be as ‘revolutionary’ as the 2016 grand coalition. Yet, President Adama Barrow is both adored and despised in various circles, akin to Ousainou Darboe and other politicians.
Fatoumatta: In politics, predictability is often seen as a disadvantage. Ousainou Darboe’s longevity in Gambian politics is attributed to his enigmatic nature. His next political move is unpredictable, and no institution teaches the political craft necessary to anticipate Ousainou Darboe’s strategies. This mystique is what sustains interest and engagement in political discourse. Adama Barrow, on the other hand, lacks this element of surprise, akin to a patient lion in the savanna, who watches a herd of buffalo, selects the weakest, and strikes when least expected.
When you are desperate for prey and scatter across the grassland chasing anything that moves, you make it easy for your prey to exploit your desperation, band together, and eliminate you from the ecosystem. In politics, as in the wild, a predator lacking the patience to time its prey will ultimately starve. Adama Barrow should be cautious, as his opportunities for a catch may soon diminish.
Science indicates that it requires considerable energy, skill, and tact for a marathon runner to lead the pack. The IAAF introduced pacemakers in marathons to help elite athletes break world records. The logic is that one must lead from the start to challenge the world marathon record. Thus, World Athletics began compensating some road runners to set the pace for the contenders, who would then take over after the pacemakers drop out, leaving the elite to battle to the finish line.
This is a lesson for Adama Barrow. Being the one everyone is trying to catch means you need extraordinary endurance and composure, especially when others lose theirs in the pursuit. Yet, Adama Barrow risks exhausting himself, suffering from lack of oxygen, and losing momentum from the challenges he faces. The phrase ‘running a marathon like a sprinter’ symbolizes the tactic of using all energy and resources too soon, leading to burnout and an inability to keep up the pace. It’s not to say Adama Barrow will be spent before 2026, but running a marathon as though it’s a sprint suggests an imminent collapse of stamina, for which one can only blame oneself.
Fatoumatta: President Barrow should observe how cheetahs hunt in the wild. Wildlife researchers rank the cheetah as one of the most strategic jungle predators. It is the swiftest land animal, capable of outrunning a speeding bullet when conditions are right, thanks to its speed-optimized physiology. However, this remarkable speed is short-lived, necessitating strategic planning before the hunt; the cheetah must position itself to strike quickly. Similarly, President Barrow must adopt a strategic approach, conserving energy rather than engaging in futile sprints. His situation demands urgent, yet calculated actions.
In pursuit, a cheetah will stealthily approach its target, then suddenly accelerate. A gazelle knows it must outpace the cheetah in the initial 100 meters to survive. The cheetah’s small brain size means that prolonged high-speed chases could cause brain damage or even death, especially if the prey has already outmatched it in speed
Fatoumatta:The National People’s Party (NPP) politburo, particularly the youthful, eager newcomers and the Diaspora branch, should adopt a more strategic approach in their political maneuvers to support President Barrow’s 2026 campaign. If Adama Barrow and Ousainou Darboe continue on their current trajectory, their presidential aspirations might dissipate before 2026. In contrast, the former despot Yahya Jammeh was notorious for relentlessly targeting his opponents using every instrument of state power at his disposal. He frequently and mercilessly wielded the state’s coercive power to exile his political adversaries whenever he perceived a threat to his rule. Jammeh utilized the state’s unchecked power through a relentless carrot-and-stick strategy, marked by persistent harassment, intimidation, arrests, and persecution. This effectively silenced activists, politicians, and Diaspora clicktivists who, from afar, tweeted terse messages in sophisticated English from the streets of cold Seattle and London. Should the need arise, Adama Barrow is prepared to assert his authority and dismiss any intransigent proxies or members of his party and its coalition partners. In his final term, Barrow feels no compulsion to excel, not even for his cat, as he is not up for re-election anytime soon. By doing so, President Barrow aims to forestall premature political campaigning as he focuses on cementing his legacy during his first and second terms. Many of the President’s supporters believe that early jockeying for the 2026 presidential election could weaken his presidential authority. They intend to bolster and fortify his position well before his second term concludes.
