Military Adventurism and the Grave-Diggers of Democracy in West Africa. A Region in Peril
By Alagi Yorro Jallow,
Part 1
Fatoumatta: West Africa stands at a critical juncture, facing an alarming crisis. The recent military coup in Guinea-Bissau, triggered by disputed elections in which both incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and opposition candidate Fernando Dias claimed victory, is a clear indication of a deeper, troubling trend in the region. The resurgence of military intervention marks this trend, the disintegration of civilian authority, and the manipulation of populist rhetoric.
This commentary situates the Guinea-Bissau crisis within a broader epidemic of coups sweeping across Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and beyond. It highlights Kwame Nkrumah’s prophetic warning that, despite their promises of democratic transition, military regimes seldom deliver genuine democratic governance. Moreover, it critically examines the role of civilian leaders whose corruption and authoritarian practices have become instruments of democracy’s demise. The situation demands urgent attention, as the very fabric of democracy in West Africa hangs in the balance.
Guinea-Bissau: The Latest Domino:
Fatoumatta: Guinea-Bissau has long suffered from instability. Since gaining independence in 1974, the country has faced multiple coups, assassinations, and disputed elections. The electoral dispute in November 2025 was particularly indicative of this turmoil, as both President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and former Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira declared victory before the official results were released, undermining the credibility of the electoral institutions.
In response, the military intervened, suspending the electoral process and announcing a three-year transitional period. This intervention reflects earlier crises in the region. In Guinea (2021), Colonel Mamady Doumbouya justified his coup by citing corruption and manipulation of the constitution. In Burkina Faso (2022), Captain Ibrahim Traoré claimed he was saving the nation from insecurity. In Mali (2020–21), Colonel Assimi Goïta carried out two coups within a year, citing civilian incompetence. Similarly, in Niger (2023), General Abdourahmane Tchiani took power after President Mohamed Bazoum was detained.
Therefore, Guinea-Bissau’s ongoing instability signals a regional threat that could destabilize West Africa and impact global security, making this issue urgent for regional and international audiences.
Nkrumah’s Prophecy: The Coup Illusion:
Fatoumatta: In his book “The Struggle Continues” (1973), Kwame Nkrumah warned: “Military regimes the world over make a habit of proclaiming their intentions to return to civilian rule… but in not a single case has this been done.” His words remain prophetic. Military rulers often promise transitions to civilian governance, but these pledges are merely tactical illusions meant to pacify resistance and gain international legitimacy.
In reality, they entrench their power, manipulate timelines, and often evolve into civilian autocrats. A clear example of this is Yahya Jammeh in The Gambia, who seized power in 1994 and ruled for 22 years while pretending to hold civilian elections. Throughout West Africa, civilian leaders have frequently dissolved legislatures, manipulated electoral commissions, extended term limits, and ruled by decree. These actions erode legitimacy and create openings for military intervention, as seen with Embaló’s dissolution of Guinea-Bissau’s parliament in 2023.
This dynamic reveals a tragic paradox: civilian leaders entrusted with safeguarding democracy often undermine it through corruption and authoritarianism, underscoring the urgent need for accountability and reform to restore trust and stability.
Populism: The Military’s Mask:
Fatoumatta: Military rulers frequently shroud their ambitions in populist rhetoric, pledging to combat corruption and uphold national sovereignty. However, this deceptive guise is a stark warning of the dangers inherent in accepting surface-level solutions that conceal authoritarian intentions. In Burkina Faso, Traoré has adeptly cultivated legitimacy by capturing the interest of youth movements, even as democratic norms crumble. In Guinea, Doumbouya’s rhetoric of “national dignity” cleverly distracts from a glaring lack of essential institutional reform. Similarly, in Niger, Tchiani portrayed his coup as a stand against foreign meddling, successfully tapping into potent nationalist sentiments.
Populism, therefore, emerges as a perilous weapon; it not only legitimizes military rule but also systematically dismantles democratic accountability. The Epidemic of Coups: A Regional Contagion Since 2020, West Africa has been rocked by six successful coups. Each new coup emboldens the next, fostering a contagion effect where military usurpation becomes an all-too-acceptable political remedy. The response from ECOWAS, characterized by sanctions and diplomatic initiatives, has often proved inadequate. Sanctions can inflict greater suffering on civilians than on the juntas in power. To strengthen regional resilience, we must explore more effective strategies, such as targeted diplomatic outreach and robust support for civil society.
This wave of coups in West Africa is not merely a local crisis; it casts a long shadow over global democratic standards. The interdependence of regional stability and international democratic norms underscores how turmoil in West Africa reverberates worldwide.
Security Coups devastate state stability, creating power vacuums ripe for exploitation by extremist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates in the Sahel. Migration. This instability fuels displacement, driving increased migration flows toward Europe and beyond. Geopolitics Military regimes often pivot to new alliances, including ties with Russia’s Wagner Group, fundamentally reshaping the global balance of power. Democratic populism and the normalization of coups pose a profound threat to global democratic norms, emboldening authoritarianism worldwide. For the international community, the coup in Guinea-Bissau serves as a stark reminder: the fragility of democracy in one region sends shockwaves across the globe.
The Cure: Good Governance
Fatoumatta: The solution to military adventurism extends beyond mere condemnation; it demands a commitment to good governance. Civilian leaders must take decisive action to uphold constitutional limits and honor term boundaries, ensuring a stable political framework. Fortify independent institutions, including robust judiciaries and electoral commissions, to maintain the integrity of governance. Actively combat corruption by ensuring transparency and accountability at all levels. – Engage citizens through genuinely inclusive policies, steering clear of superficial populist theatrics.
Furthermore, international actors must play a crucial role in these endeavors, not just through punitive sanctions but by making sustained investments in democratic institutions, civic education, and the empowerment of civil society to support regional resilience and democratic stability.
Vigilance and Responsibility:
Fatoumatta: Guinea-Bissau’s recent coup serves as a powerful wake-up call, underscoring the precarious state of democracy in West Africa. This region is alarmingly susceptible to both failures of civilian governance and incursions by military power. Nkrumah’s warning resonates now more than ever: the promises of political transition often mask the reality of deep-seated instability. The antidote to military intervention lies in robust and effective governance. Civilian leaders must confront this challenge head-on, or they will be remembered not as champions of democracy but as architects of its demise. Meanwhile, citizens, scholars, and civic leaders must remain vigilant, ready to defend democracy against threats from within and from military forces. West Africa deserves leaders who uphold and champion democracy, not those who conspire to undermine it.
