Alagi Yorro Jallow
Fatoumatta: The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime signifies the conclusion of a long-standing dynasty in Syria. After almost 14 years of conflict, Assad’s administration fell during significant offensives by the Syrian opposition forces. This momentous event ends the Assad family’s governance, which started with Hafez al-Assad in 1971.
Bashar al-Assad assumed power in 2000 after his father’s death. Initially perceived as a potential agent of reform, his governance soon became authoritarian, particularly following the protests in 2011 that devolved into a vicious civil war. The war has resulted in the loss of nearly half a million lives and the displacement of millions.
With Assad’s rule now over, Syria faces a period of uncertainty, lacking a clear successor and bearing the deep scars of prolonged conflict. The global community is now closely observing as Syria embarks on this new phase of its history.
Fatoumatta: Several aspects are worth considering regarding the fall of Assad. It seemed inevitable since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, following the Arab Spring. Bashar Al-Assad’s dramatic ousting by rebel forces and Putin’s subsequent grant of asylum to him and his family, similar to Yahya Jammeh’s asylum in Equatorial Guinea, marked the end of an era. The Syrian populace, echoing the wider “Arab street,” demanded democracy, freedom, and the rule of law. Fatoumatta: This call for change led to the downfall of once-dominant leaders like Hosni Mubarak and Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali, despite massive protests and crackdowns that failed to suppress the people’s fervor.
We should not be naïve; in both scenarios, the military intervened to deliver the decisive strike and compel the autocrats to step down. Has the state of freedom and democracy improved since? Not significantly, considering the present circumstances, and it was difficult for many to foresee the results of these uprisings and the character of the governments that would follow.
Following the Arab Spring, the Syrian government persisted, enduring through severe repression and substantial support from allies like Iran and Russia. Since 2011, Bashar al-Assad has employed extreme violence to dominate Syrians, with assistance from Hezbollah fighters, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and Russian troops. The events of December 8 in Syria were a stark reminder of a fundamental truth: a nation’s security and sovereignty should not be entrusted to an external power. Damascus had previously relied on these alliances to combat Islamist forces and sustain an unpopular, ruthless regime. The decision to seek protection under Russia’s wing enabled the regime to endure for almost a decade. This alliance gave Moscow a strategic advantage in global politics, using the Tartus Naval Base for its navy while allowing the Assad regime to continue its assaults, which often did not spare civilians.
Fatoumatta: The Russians, significantly impacted by international sanctions and with their troops mired on the Ukrainian front, have become vulnerable. This vulnerability likely contributed to the swift success of the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) militia’s offensive, which started on November 27 and concluded in Damascus by December 8. Consequently, the rebels captured Bashar al-Assad, who had been Syria’s president for 24 years, following his father Hafez al-Assad’s 29-year rule. Thus, a five-decade-long family autocracy has ended abruptly within ten days, due to the inability of the Syrian security forces and their Russian, Lebanese, and Iranian allies.
Benjamin Barthes, a prominent expert on the region for Le Monde, provides a comprehensive analysis of the Syrian civil war’s toll. He states that the conflict has resulted in 300,000 to 500,000 deaths, 1.5 million people disabled, 5.6 million refugees, and 6.2 million internally displaced persons. Additionally, a third of the buildings have been destroyed or damaged.
Following the dramatic downfall of Bashar al-Assad, known as the “Doctor” due to his medical background in ophthalmology, only the most audacious can envision Syria’s future, now in the hands of militias with diverse influences and pledges. If their initial goal is realized—to dismantle Assad’s reign of terror—the path ahead remains uncertain. Will Syria embark on a new chapter of democracy and liberty? Skepticism persists regarding the present situation, where armed individuals have ousted a president, despite his tyrannical rule.
It is also prudent to observe and wait, as Tunisia and Egypt serve as reminders that the initial jubilation following the overthrow of a dictator can give way to the sorrow of life under a new form of autocracy. However, let me first state two firm beliefs. One is that it is possible to vehemently oppose Bashar Al-Assad’s tyrannical regime without succumbing to naive admiration for the militiamen who make grand promises yet are ideologically steeped in Islamism; after all, Hts is fundamentally a derivative of the notorious Al-Qaeda. The second belief is that we should not outsource our security.
Fatoumatta: This is an error on the part of our Malian and Burkinabe neighbors, who are placing their trust in the mercenaries of the Africa Corps (formerly known as the Wagner Group) to overcome the armed factions in their nations. In reality, the Africa Corps resembles a praetorian guard serving illegitimate governments. Was the Wagner Group able to quell the assault on Bamako airport on September 17? Our neighbors would do well to reflect deeply on the downfall of Assad.
